Decisions Under Uncertainty

Annie Duke wrote Thinking in Bets, How to Decide and Quit. Her newsletter covers decision strategy: uncertainty, probabilistic thinking, dissent and knowing when to walk away. The free tier includes the standard posts. Read it to separate the quality of a decision from the luck of its outcome.

Shane Parrish runs Farnam Street, named for the street address of Berkshire Hathaway. The site covers decision-making, mental models and learning. His Brain Food newsletter is free and arrives every Sunday, and the Knowledge Project podcast interviews people at the top of their fields. Start here for a working library of mental models.

Good Judgment Open is a public forecasting site run by Good Judgment, the firm co-founded by Philip Tetlock. You make predictions on political, economic and technology questions and see how you stack up against other forecasters. It is practice with a scoreboard. Use it to learn what your confidence is actually worth.

The Alliance for Decision Education is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit founded in 2014 to bring decision skills into schools. It publishes learning standards, classroom starter packs and The Decision Education Podcast. The material is written for students, which makes it clear and plain for adults too. Start here if you want to teach these skills to someone else.

Behavioral Scientist is a nonprofit digital magazine about behavioral science. It runs columns, interviews and book coverage across business, health, government and technology. A newsletter collects new pieces. Read it to see how the research on judgment is holding up outside the lab.